This week I listened to The Polling Conspiracy from Poor Judgment. The first thing I realized when listening to this was how much more complicated polls are than I thought they were. Apparently I am not alone in that either because Donald Trump seems to not know exactly what some of the terms mean or how they are conducted. He does not understand what oversampling or voter suppression are. He believes the polls are being manipulated to give the impression that Hillary is doing better than she is.
Gingrich talked about two alternative universes that we've created and I guess I agree. I don't think there is enough poll participation or correct use of poll information for us to all be on the same page. They used the example of one 19 year old black male being counted for like 30 times, giving the impression that Trump was doing better with black voters than he actually was. When this particular voter stopped participating in the polls, the numbers were thrown off greatly again. People change party affiliation, without necessarily changing their registration, people don't respond to requests to participate in the polls and take surveys, and use of the internet in gathering data is still a bit unclear.
Pollsters can travel the country, make a million phone calls, and study the demographics all day and night, but I really think all we know for sure is that we don't know what's going to happen because polls have been very wrong before and the way they are conducted is changing. I think that's the general theme of this election as well. We don't know what's going to happen.
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